Unsure on what Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) are, or what the significance of them is to local authorities? This article seeks to answer these questions, and help signpost you on how to access more information about the modelling.
What are Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES)?
Each year, all Distribution Network Operators publish their annual DFES report. DFES data models different 'drivers' of change; like the uptake of electric cars, low carbon heating, hydrogen, renewable energy or changing consumer behaviours. DFES create a picture of how the energy system might look by 2050, the UK's Net Zero target year.
The result is four 'scenario worlds', each offering a different picture of the future based on two concepts - speed of decarbonisation, and level of societal change. UK Power Networks publish this as an interactive summary, a technical report, and as interactive maps. Now, DFES are accessible within the Your Local Net Zero Hub (YLNZH) tool as a geospatial timeseries. The raw data is also published, so users can create their own analysis. The four scenarios are as follows:
Holistic Transition - This scenario meets net zero through a mix of electrification and hydrogen, with hydrogen mainly around industrial clusters. Consumer engagement in the transition is very strong with demand shifting, with smart homes and electric vehicles providing flexibility to the grid.
Electric Engagement - This scenario meets net zero through mainly electrified demand. Consumers are highly engaged in the energy transition through smart technologies that reduce energy demands, utilising technologies such as electric heat pumps and electric vehicles.
Counterfactual - This scenario misses net zero, though some progress is made for decarbonisation compared to today. While home insulation improves, there is still a heavy reliance on gas across all sectors, particularly power and space heating. Electric vehicle uptake is slower than the net zero pathways, but still displaces petrol and diesel.
Hydrogen Evolution - This scenario meets net zero through fast progress for hydrogen in industry and heat. Many consumers will have hydrogen boilers, though energy efficiency will be key to reducing cost. There are low levels of consumer engagement. Hydrogen will be prevalent for heavy goods vehicles but electric car uptake is strong.
Why are DFES relevant to local authorities?
As different areas decarbonise at different rates, clusters of low-carbon technologies
will emerge, which can present a significant challenge for our network. For example,
a single ultra rapid charge point can require as much electrical demand as 175
homes. We use the DFES to identify where our network is likely to be overloaded in
the future, and prepare accordingly. This is why it is critical that we ensure our DFES
is as accurate as possible by taking into account local authorities local net zero
plans.
DFES represents credible decarbonisation trajectories for over 60 individual drivers,
and many of these drivers are modelled down to Lower Layer Super Output area.
This means that you can see what the uptake of low-carbon technologies could look
like at a local level.
With a clearer picture of the future via DFES, we can make sure we're doing everything possible to reach Net Zero emissions and help our stakeholders do the same. After our round of engagement last year, we found 90% of local authorities who responded to our survey said they plan to use DFES data to inform their climate action plans.
Using DFES in Your Local Net Zero Hub (YLNZH)
Accessing DFES has never been easier. Local Authorities are encouraged to use DFES and consider what their local targets and resources are, and which scenario suits their region the best. This can then be used as a baseline for considering the necessary scale of low-carbon interventions for a given time period. Navigate to DFES directly from the YLNZH Map:
From here, it is as simple as selecting your options from the available dropdown fields. First, you can select from two granularity options - LSOA (Lower layer Super Output Areas), or MSOA (Middle layer Super Output Areas).
In this case, let's look at an example in which we'd like to consider a scenario where consumers play a significant role in the transition, by using technologies such as heat pumps and EVs.
First, we'll select our scenario. In this case, Electric Engagement gives us the above described view. Next, select the Technology. Try selecting 'Domestic AC' then hit 'Submit'.
Once ready, click 'Run Scenario' and observe the pace of intervention for your chosen Technology under your select scenario.
Tip: For insight on what each colour means as the scenario runs, select 'Show Legend' at the top-right hand side of the map
Useful links to find out more