Want to take an interactive tour of Scenarios? If you're a first time user, a tour will start automatically the first time you navigate to Scenarios. If you want to re-take a tour: go to live chat, choose 'I need help', select 'Scenarios' and 'View Tour'.
What are Scenarios?
Decarbonisation scenarios are different potential routes to decarbonise an area over several years. They forecast potential rollout rates over time and location for different technologies like photovoltaics, heat pumps and insulation.
How do my Scenarios compare to Distribution Future Energy Scenarios?
Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) model different 'drivers' of change; like the uptake of electric cars, low carbon heating, hydrogen, renewable energy or changing consumer behaviours. DFES create a picture of how the energy system might look by 2050 across four DFES scenarios based on four different potential futures. Read more about DFES here.
How do my Scenarios compare to my Projects?
Scenarios and projects are designed to complement each other. Projects support more granular and often nearer-term planning that focusses on specific buildings or neighbourhoods. Scenarios support region-wide planning over many years.
How can I make a Scenario?
If you prefer video-based learning, here's a video which walks through the steps in this tutorial:
Get started with your first Scenario. Navigate to your Scenarios via the side panel or home page and click 'Create New Scenario'
Choose your technologies and budget type. An annual budget sets an overall annual limit; a per property budget sets a per building limit. An 'uncapped' budget assumed unlimited financial resources. We recommend creating at least one 'uncapped' budget scenario to obtain an estimate cost to deliver your targets.
Set your targets and refine budget (if using an uncapped budget). The 'Net Zero Target Year' sets the end date for your Scenario. The model will aim to hit targets for each of your chosen technologies by this date. You can amend 'Technology Specific Targets' and add new rows to set interim targets ahead of your end date.
Save and wait for results. It will take around 60 seconds for the model to process your request.
View results. The Scenario summary page provides an overview of your scenario (cost, carbon impact, deployment rates, generation, etc.) The map view provides a geospatial overview of deployment over time.
Share your Scenario. Work collaborative by sharing your scenario with other users, or collect feedback from external stakeholders via Consultations.
If you think that this is a likely scenario for your decarbonisations plans, then you can easily share this with your Network Operator(s) once you have run the scenario, in the "view results" section.
Sharing insights about your plans with your Network Operator is a valuable step in decarbonisation planning as it allows network operators to plan ahead and ensure the grid has sufficient capacity to support local ambitions.
What assumptions does the model make?
There are 3 core limiting factors which affect the rollout of technologies:
Local renewable potential
Cost to deploy compared to budget
Your targets
'Local renewable potential' is a measure of the number of properties or locations where you could feasibly deploy a technology. The number of homes suitable for heat pumps or rooftop PV provide a ceiling for the model, which prevents deployment above a certain level. You can explore local Renewable Potential in Map>Data>Renewable Potential.
'Cost to deploy' is based on an assessment of typical install costs (material & labour). For domestic technologies, costs is calculated individually for every building in your local authority. For example, to cost to deploy a heat pump cost is derived from the recommended heat pump size for a property which is based on an assessment of building heat demand and energy efficiency. The cost to deploy PV is based on an assessment of per-building capacity. Budget is an optional input determined by you - the user and can be customised for each technology bundle.
Targets are auto-set based on your chosen 'Net Zero' year and can be customised to align with local commitments, such as allocating a percentage of investment to fuel poor regions.