Unsure what Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) are or their significance for local authorities?
This article explains DFES and provides guidance on how to access more information about the modeling.
What are Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES)?
Each year, all Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) publish their annual DFES reports. DFES data models various "drivers" of change, such as the uptake of electric vehicles, low-carbon heating, hydrogen, renewable energy, and evolving consumer behaviors. DFES outlines how the energy system might look by 2050, the UK’s target year for achieving Net Zero.
The result is four distinct "scenario worlds," each depicting a different future based on two key concepts: the speed of decarbonization and the level of societal change. DNOs present DFES through interactive summaries, technical reports, and interactive maps. DFES data is also available on the platform as a geospatial timeseries, with raw data provided for users to conduct their own analyses.
The four scenarios are as follows:
Leading the Way – The most optimistic and fastest scenario for reaching Net Zero, driven by the highest level of societal change and the use of both hydrogen and electric low-carbon technologies.
System Transformation – A scenario where the Net Zero target is met by 2050, with hydrogen playing a crucial role in decarbonizing difficult sectors like heat and heavy transport.
Consumer Transformation – In this scenario, Net Zero is achieved by 2050 through widespread societal change and deep electrification of both transport and heat.
Falling Short – The least optimistic scenario, in which progress is made towards decarbonization but the Net Zero target for 2050 is not achieved.
Why are DFES relevant to local authorities?
As different regions decarbonize at varying rates, clusters of low-carbon technologies will emerge, posing challenges for the electricity network. For instance, a single ultra-rapid charge point can require as much electrical demand as 175 homes. DFES helps identify areas where the network may become overloaded, allowing DNOs to plan and reinforce the system accordingly.
It’s essential for DFES to accurately reflect local authorities’ Net Zero plans, as DFES models credible decarbonization pathways for over 60 individual drivers, many of which are mapped down to the Lower Layer Super Output Area (LSOA) level. This enables local authorities to visualize the uptake of low-carbon technologies in their regions.
By leveraging DFES, DNOs and local authorities can collaborate to meet Net Zero targets. After engaging with stakeholders, 90% of local authorities who responded to our survey indicated they plan to use DFES data to inform their climate action plans.
Using DFES on the Platform
Accessing DFES is now easier than ever. Local authorities are encouraged to use DFES to evaluate their local targets and resources and identify which scenario best fits their region. This can serve as a baseline for determining the scale of low-carbon interventions needed over time. You can access DFES directly on the platform:
Choose Your DFES Scenario: For example, if you’re interested in the most optimistic solar photovoltaic (PV) rollout in your region, select the Leading the Way scenario.
Select the Technology: In this case, choose Solar PV.
4. Run the Scenario: Before running the scenario, you can adjust the speed of the timeseries between 2020 and 2050. Once ready, click Run Scenario to observe the pace of interventions for your chosen technology under the selected scenario.
Tip: For insight on what each colour means as the scenario runs, select 'Show Legend' at the top-right hand side of the map