What are Scenarios?
Decarbonisation scenarios are different potential routes to decarbonise an area over several years. They forecast potential rollout rates over time and location for different technologies like photovoltaics, heat pumps and insulation.
How do my Scenarios compare to Distribution Future Energy Scenarios?
Distribution Future Energy Scenarios (DFES) model different 'drivers' of change; like the uptake of electric cars, low carbon heating, hydrogen, renewable energy or changing consumer behaviours. DFES create a picture of how the energy system might look by 2050 across four DFES scenarios based on four different potential futures. Read more about DFES here.
How do my Scenarios compare to my Projects?
Scenarios and projects are designed to complement each other. Projects support more granular and often nearer-term planning that focusses on specific buildings or neighbourhoods. Scenarios support region-wide planning over many years.
How can I make a Scenario?
If you prefer video-based learning, here's a video which walks through the steps in this tutorial:
This video supports an older version of Scenarios. We are working to get an updated video to you soon!
Get started with your first Scenario. Navigate to Scenarios via the side panel and click 'Create Scenario' > 'Domestic Scenario'
We will be adding the non-domestic option in the future, but it is not available yet.
Enter a name, end date, and description for your Scenario:
You need to add this information first in order to fill out the rest of the form, but you can always come back to change it later.
Optionally, select a pre-set default Scenario from the 'Template' drop-down menu:
These will fill in all of the input fields for you, so that you can make small adjustments or just run it as-is. Click each template to explore how the inputs differ between each template. There are three options:
Accelerated LCT deployment: This scenario aims to achieve 'target' ahead of the UK's national target by deploying a comprehensive suite of both mature and emerging low carbon technologies.
Market ready technology adoption: This scenario focuses on the adoption of mature, widely available technologies that consumers can individually adopt to achieve decarbonisation. Prioritising communities with low resilience to energy related challenges.
Centralised low-carbon infrastructure: This scenario focuses on centralised decarbonisation, emphasising hydrogen and heat networks as key elements to reduce emissions through large scale infrastructure.
4. If you only want your Scenario to run on a subset of buildings within your area, you can select a Portfolio to run your Scenario on:
This means that the modeller will only apply technologies to buildings within your selected Portfolio.
5. Now it's time to select your technologies!
You can select from the default technologies on the left, or add additional technologies such as hydrogen boilers or district heating on the right.
The default technologies are linked to the Advanced Infrastructure datasets, which identify properties that have the potential to be updated using a particular technology.
For these datasets we have calculated costs, benefits and carbon savings built into the scenario modelling tool.
The additional technologies are a bit different, as there are no provided datasets for these technologies from Advanced Infrastructure, so you must provide the following additional information:
A method for identifying which properties are suitable for this technology
Expected size (at present only one size is possible)
Expected cost (only one)
Expected annual carbon saving (only one)
You can add the above information as building-level or geospatial rules, similar to a Portfolio:
6. Next, set your targets for each technology here:
Note: If you select the 'percentage' option, this value will be the percentage of properties in your entire local authority. If you have applied a Portfolio, then the percentage you set as a target should be suitable for that portfolio in the context of the whole local authority.
For example, if I've applied a Portfolio or 1000 properties, of which only 500 are suitable for PV, in a local authority of 50,000 properties, then the maximum target I can expect to meet is 1%.
7. Now define a budget for your Scenario, or leave it to run uncapped:
An annual budget sets an annual spending limit for each year of your Scenario. If you set a total budget, it will be distributed across each year.
We recommend creating at least one 'uncapped' budget scenario to obtain an estimate cost to deliver your targets.
8. You can optionally create a few additional rules here, to prioritise buildings with certain characteristics, based off of datasets in the platform:
This is not required, as the modeller will still use your technology targets, building suitability, and cost, to model your Scenario.
9. That's it! Click 'Create' in the bottom-right corner to start processing your Scenario.
This may take a few hours depending on the size of your Scenario. Please be patient and feel free to return to the platform later to view your results.
Understanding your results
The Scenario summary page provides an overview of your Scenario (cost, carbon impact, deployment rates, generation, etc.)
You will see a graph for each of the technologies you modelled. Each graph will show:
The target you set and the outcome value
The modelled deployments for each year of the scenario (cumulative)
Click ‘Show Impact’ under each graph to view:
The modelled Energy Generation total for each year (not cumulative) in MW
The modelled Carbon Saving for each year (not cumulative)
The modelled cost for each year (not cumulative)
The map view provides a geospatial overview of deployment over time.
Share your Scenario. Work collaborative by sharing your scenario with other users, or collect feedback from external stakeholders via Consultations.
If you think that this is a likely scenario for your decarbonisations plans, then you can easily share this with your Network Operator(s) once you have run the scenario, in the "view results" section.
Sharing insights about your plans with your Network Operator is a valuable step in decarbonisation planning as it allows network operators to plan ahead and ensure the grid has sufficient capacity to support local ambitions.
What assumptions does the model make?
There are 3 core limiting factors which affect the rollout of technologies:
Local renewable potential
Cost to deploy compared to budget
Your targets
'Local renewable potential' is a measure of the number of properties or locations where you could feasibly deploy a technology. The number of homes suitable for heat pumps or rooftop PV provide a ceiling for the model, which prevents deployment above a certain level. You can explore local Renewable Potential in Map>Data>Renewable Potential.
'Cost to deploy' is based on an assessment of typical installation costs (material & labour). For domestic technologies, costs are calculated individually for every building in your local authority.
For example, the cost to deploy a heat pump is derived from the recommended heat pump size for a property, which is based on an assessment of building heat demand and energy efficiency. The cost to deploy PV is based on an assessment of per-building capacity.