What we quickly built for you
To support teams during this period, we developed* a simple monitoring framework
How to Use it
"You do not have to outrun the bear. You have to outrun the other tourists."
When geopolitical crises escalate, many organizations either wait for clarity or react to headlines after markets have already moved. In reality, uncertainty is highest precisely when decisions still need to be made.
For the CMI community, the role is not to predict outcomes. It is to identify early signals, prepare scenarios, and help the business respond faster than competitors.
Understanding the current uncertainty
Right now, several outcomes remain possible. The crisis could remain regionally contained, or it could start affecting global supply chains, energy markets, and inflation.
Instead of predicting the final scenario, CMI teams should monitor a few critical questions:
What happens to oil and energy prices, and how quickly?
Where will supply and demand break first?
Do disruptions spread into freight, fertilizers, and food systems?
These signals often appear before the broader economic impact becomes visible.
What the CMI community should monitor
Early indicators include shifts in:
Energy and oil prices
Freight routes and shipping costs
Fertilizer and agricultural inputs
Insurance and financing costs
Key maritime chokepoints such as the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb Strait
Tracking these signals helps organizations anticipate how disruption may cascade through supply chains and markets.
What we quickly built for you
The Commodity Monitor highlights:
The signals to track in the short, medium, and longer term
The difference between contained vs. global escalation scenarios
The key market, energy, trade, and macro indicators that matter most
The goal is not prediction. It is to help you map “if–then” scenarios, reduce reaction time, and avoid costly mistakes when decision windows compress.
Explore the framework and use it as a starting point for discussions across your organization.
If you would like to discuss how to apply it to your market or industry, feel free to reach out.
Primary contact, our brilliant
Shaun Wilken
Strategic Solution Specialist
*please, note, that this is exceptional delivery outside of our regular processes; there might be some inconsistencies. If you have any doubts, please, reach out