Capacity
The capacity section in the A-INSIGHTS MarketMonitor provides a plant-level insight in the theoretical maximum production capacity. This capacity is defined as the theoretical maximum frozen potato product output of the lines installed in a plant, corrected for any output limitations laid out in the permit. Note that actual maximum output figures may differ due to assumptions on operating times, products produced (i.e. battered/coated fries), and/or availability of raw material and labor. The outlook of capacity is based on announced and/or requested capacity expansions.
Method and underlying assumptions
Our capacity figures are based on a variety of sources listed below. The information available on production capacity differs per source, meaning that the capacity shown may rely on assumptions to bring hourly or daily rates to a yearly total. These assumptions are based on the information available in the used source, but if no specific information is provided we use the general assumptions listed below:
If plant or line output capacity is provided on an annual basis, we use that figure as the maximum annual output
If output capacity is provided on a daily basis but no information on the number of operational days is provided, we assume that the plant is operational for 333 days per year
If output capacity is provided on a hourly basis but no information on the number of operating hours is provided, we assume that the plant is operational for 8000 hours per year
If a source provides the volume of raw potatoes used but no information on output capacity is provided, we assume a recovery rate of 60% to estimate annual output capacity
The outlook of capacity is based on announced and/or requested capacity expansions. Capacity expansions are included partially in a plant’s capacity in the year of completion: i.e., if a expansion is announced to be operational in July, only half of the total annual capacity is accounted for in that year. For large expansions or new plants with multiple lines, a ramp-up in capacity is estimated if no detailed information on the construction planning is available from permits or comparable sources. In these cases, we assume that it is feasible to add 150,000 metric tonnes of output capacity per year.
Sources used
Capacity figures are based on a variety of sources, listed below in order of preference:
Permits and other related official documentation: in key production countries in North America and Europe, construction, environmental, and operating permits are publicly available. These provide insight in the installed lines and output capacity. If not mentioned in the permit, supplementary official documentation such as impact studies provide valuable information.
Company communication: if no permit is available, we rely on company communication such as company websites, investment announcements, sustainability reports, and annual reports. This can be communication from either the potato processor or suppliers of material and/or other resources.
News articles: in most cases, plant investments are discussed in (local) news, detailing the economic impact on the region and often providing insight in capacity.
Other: for a fraction of the plants, none of the sources listed above is available. In these cases, we rely on any other source of information available.