Consumption
In addition to trade and shipment intelligence, the Market Monitor provides an insight in the consumption of frozen potato products. This consumption is defined as the volume of frozen potato products consumed within a country, broken down by channel:
Retail: volume of frozen potato products that are to be prepared at home, sold through retail outlets
QSR: volume sold through outlets of the global top 3 fast food chains with frozen potato products as a core menu item, being McDonald’s, KFC, and Burger King
We use the definition of global top 3 for QSR to ensure comparability across markets, as local chains may have a larger market share in specific countries or regions, but not on a global scale.Foodservice: all other volume consumed in a country, including full service restaurants, snacking outlets, chained foodservice outlets, and delivery of prepared frozen potato products
Method
We estimate total consumption in a market by adding imports to domestic production and subtracting exports. For import only markets, we fully rely on trade flow data. For countries with domestic production, we determine production through a variety of sources, including industry association reports, statistical offices, our proprietary capacity database, plant-level output figures, etc. This initial total market size is validated and refined with channel developments, and then broken down to consumption by channel: retail, QSR, and foodservice.
For retail, we use a baseline reported by Euromonitor and/or country specific sources detailing retail sales of frozen potato products (i.e., food and diet surveys from statistics offices, industry associations).
For QSR, defined as the volume sold through the global top 3 chains (McDonald’s, KFC, Burger King), we track the development of outlets per country, the volume sold per outlet, company reporting, and/or information provided by statistics offices on fast food volume developments.
By subtracting the retail and QSR market volumes from the total market volume, we get to the foodservice channel volume.
In addition to historic volumes, A-INSIGHTS provides a projection of future consumption by country and channel. Consumption growth projections are based the historic correlation between consumption per capita and macro-economic indicators and the projected development of both these macro-economic indicators and the population. These total market volumes are combined with estimations of the development of QSR volumes based on projected outlet development, historic trends in retail and foodservice to approximate the future channel split.
Sources used
The consumption calculation rely on a variety of sources:
Trade statistics are sourced from national or regional statistics offices, which are listed on the sources page
To determine production, a country-specific variety of sources is used. Key sources are:
Industry association reports
Statistics offices
Sustainability reports and emissions databases
Company annual reports
Agricultural departments (i.e. FAOSTAT)
A-INSIGHTS capacity intelligence
The channel split is derived from a variety of sources as well, including:
Statistical data on channel developments (i.e., volume of food products sold in retail, volume of foodservice consumption, volume of fast food consumption)
Shipment Intelligence
Number of outlets per QSR chain per country
Financial reports (i.e. QSR chains and master franchisees)
For the consumption projection, we source macro-economic and population data from:
World Bank
FAOSTAT
OECD
Eurostat